“If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.” - Warren Buffett "In every trade there is an idiot and if you don't know who it is, it is you" - Meir Statman On Fool's day, let us talk about the Greater Fool Theory. Interesting thing about investing in stocks is that there are always (at least ) two points of view for every trade. For every person who is buying a stock thinking the price will go up, there is a person on the other side selling the stock. Now, assuming no insider trading and assuming both the parties have exposure to the same information, it is not clear who has the relative advantage? What this augurs for the intelligent investor is that he should buy/sell only if he is clear in his mind and sure of the reasons for doing so. There is a concept called the Greater Fool Theory - this means people purchase a stock with the assumption that they will later be able to sell i...
This is a very interesting book for all those hooked to Value Investing. I was naturally attracted and I possess the book in both formats (Audio CDs and hard bound book). The book is divided into twenty one chapters, each very small (after all, it is a "little book" ) but enough to drive across the point! On the long history of Value Investing, Christopher Browne explains, Value investing has been around as an investment philosophy since the early 1930s. The principles of value investing were first articulated in 1934 when Benjamin Graham, wrote Security Analysis, the first, and still the best, book on investing . Value investing is explained in two plain sentences - The beauty of value investing is its logical simplicity. It is based on two principles: What's it worth ( intrinsic value ) and don't lose money ( margin of safety ). These concepts were introduced by Benjamin Graham in 1934, and they are as relevant today as they were then (emphasis mine). The t...
Kakatiya Cement Sugar & Industries Ltd. came on my radar and an analysis on the last 10 year data yielded the following results: + Sales increased 1.82 times (92.51 crore to 169 crore) + Current Ratio is 2.72 + Debt Equity Ratio is 0.05 (2011 data) + Net profit increased 4.38 times (5.05 crore to 22.13 crore) + Did not suffer any loss in the last 10 years + EPS increased 4.3 times (6.5 to 29.94), a CAGR of 5.06% + Book Value increased 2.6 times (77.39 to 200.9) + Uninterrupted Dividend for the last 23 years + Promoter Holding is 49.34% There has been a dramatic increase in the latest EPS (5.03 in Mar-2011 to 27.94 in Mar-2012). To smoothen out such fluctuations, I normally take the 3-year average EPS of ending period (2012, 2011 & 2010) and the beginning period (2004, 2003 & 2002). At a CMP of Rs. 79.60, the MoS works out to be 227%. Conclusion: For me, it is a buy, till I reach my diversification target or if falls out of...
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